ALGORITHM FOR CONSTRUCTING A MACRO FINANCIAL MODEL OF A REGION WITHIN THE SYSTEM OF TERRITORIAL ECONOMIC SECURITY (USING THE VOLGOGRAD REGION AS AN EXAMPLE)

Abstract

The construction of a macro financial model of a region is a cross-cutting task in regional development. This process can be simplified, yet it requires substantial informational justification for making rapid decisions, as it reflects the key financial indicators and interdependencies within the economy of individual territories. The methodology for constructing a regional financial model, considering territorial economic security, implemented in this research, expands informational boundaries by identifying potential threats that can escalate into risks. Consequently, a macro regional financial model within the economic security system provides information for analyzing the current state of the region, forecasting its development, and making management decisions under conditions of risk mitigation and identification of development prospects. The research also examines the process of selecting and forming procedures for organizing high-quality financial support for economic development forecasting. The article proposes a macro financial model for the Volgograd Region for 2025-2027, revealing development scenarios for forecast directions, correlated with pathways for: strategies to increase regional revenues; justification of regional expenditures; investment activity in the region's economic sectors; and state subsidies from the federal budget.