система поддержки принятия решений,
государственное целевое планирование,
факторы неустойчивости и неопределённости,
долгосрочное планирование,
управление рисками,
моделирование решений,
эффективность
Abstract
The article presents a theoretical concept of the author's mechanism for organizing a decision support system in strategic planning using state target programs, the main advantage of which is the consideration of uncertain conditions and the multi-alternativeness of prospective actions. Problem. The need to account for long-term consequences, consider the current and prospective state of socio-economic systems, as well as the multi-alternativeness of actions, which characterize strategic management decision-making, poses a threat of reduced quality of public administration due to insufficient informational and analytical support. Methodology. Within the framework of the situational approach of management decision-making theory, the main factors significantly influencing the effectiveness of strategic planning in public administration have been investigated. A concept of effective management has been formed based on the integration of risk identification and management tools, and methodological support for the development and evaluation of scenarios for possible situation development and potential consequences of decisions, their evaluation, and decision-making based on the obtained data. Research Results. It has been established that the main sources of reduced effectiveness of state programs are the neglect of assessing the sustainability of planned actions, as well as the inconsistency of internal structural goals of the target program, including their temporal distribution. As a result of the research, it has been found that to ensure the quality of managerial work, as the main factor in the effectiveness of program-target planning in public administration, it is necessary to use a system of methodological solutions based on risk identification and management methods to account for the sustainability of possible action alternatives, and long-term programming methods to ensure the consistency of current goals at different stages with the overall goals and parameters of the programs. Practical Application. The findings obtained form the basis for designing information and analytical support to obtain a well-founded management decision, taking into account the long-term nature of strategic planning and the potential characteristics of instability of available action alternatives. The prospective automation of calculation procedures within the scope of this research will ensure a reduction in the workload for management personnel without losing the advantages in decision justification.
