THE EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION PARADIGMS IN THE CONTEXT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM INNOVATIVE ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

Abstract

This article analyzes the influence of changing paradigms of scientific views in public administration on the evolution of development institutions for small and medium innovative enterprises. The relevance of the article is driven by the need to forecast the development of state mechanisms for innovation support in Russia to achieve technological leadership in the face of global challenges. The aim of the work is to identify systemic trends and form a forecast for the future transformation of development institutions for small and medium innovative enterprises based on retrospective analysis. The methodological basis includes the historical-genetic method, comparative analysis, and the case-study method, applied to study the evolution from the New Public Management paradigm to the paradigms of digital, stress-resilient management, and sustainable development. The results reveal key trends: a transition from systems to ecosystems, and a shift from reactive to proactive management. Based on the analysis, a scenario forecast has been developed, anticipating the development of a new paradigm of adaptive management, characterized by the use of artificial intelligence, smart contracts, distributed ledgers, and other promising tools aimed at proactively shaping state support measures and decentralized organizational forms. The practical significance of the work lies in forming a theoretical basis for designing next-generation development institutions in the Russian Federation capable of proactive action.