занятость населения,
рынок труда,
сельское хозяйство,
динамика занятости,
статистический анализ,
метод экстраполяции,
прогнозирование занятости
Abstract
Problem. This study focuses on significant structural changes in the Russian labor market, driven by technological, demographic, and economic factors. Particular attention is paid to the sustained negative dynamics of employment in agriculture, which is considered a source of risks for food security and requires substantiated forecasting for the development of preventive public policy measures. Methodology. The work is based on a comprehensive analysis of official statistical data on the distribution of the employed population by economic activity for the period 2015-2024. Trends and main drivers of change were identified using time series analysis. The forecast for the number of employed in agriculture and the economy as a whole for periods of 3 and 6 years was constructed using the extrapolation method based on the identified trend, with an assessment of error and confidence intervals. The analysis of factors influencing employment in the agricultural sector was conducted considering technological, demographic, and institutional aspects. Research Results. It was found that during the analyzed period, overall employment increased by 1.87 million people, while agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing, and aquaculture recorded the maximum reduction – by 1.13 million people (a decline rate of 76.71%). The main determinants of this negative dynamic were identified: aging workforce, mechanization, urbanization, climatic risks, and production consolidation. The forecast confirms the continuation of this trend: with an expected overall employment growth of 11.85% by 2030, a further reduction in the number of workers in the agricultural sector is predicted. Practical Application. The results of this work serve as an analytical basis for state planning in the field of regional development and support for rural areas. The findings can be used for human resource planning. The analysis of risk factors and the constructed forecasts are valuable for educational institutions to adapt vocational training programs, considering the future needs of the transforming labor market.
